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Goliath's Curse

The History and Future of Societal Collapse

Author Luke Kemp
A vast and unprecedented survey of societal collapse—stretching from the Stone Age to the age of silicon—that digs through the ruins of fallen societies to understand the root causes of their downfall and the most dire consequences for our future.

"Deeply sobering and strangely inspiring . . . Read it now, or your descendants will find it in the ruins." —Johann Hari, author of Stolen Focus

"Highly recommended." —Peter Turchin, author of End Times


Stepping back to look at our precariously interdependent global society of today—with the threat of nuclear war ever present, the world getting hotter and hotter, and the rapid creation of dangerous algorithms—one couldn’t be blamed for asking: Will we make it?

Addressing this question with the seriousness it demands, Cambridge scholar Luke Kemp draws on multiple historical databases and the latest discoveries from archaeology and anthropology to reveal profound and often counterintuitive insights into why societies collapse, how those living through such collapses were impacted, and what it means for us today:

  • Collapse is often a good outcome for most people. After the fall of Rome people grew taller and healthier than they were under the empire. 
  • Our picture of past empires is skewed by the "1% view of history," relying on evidence only from the wealthiest class.
  • What we call civilizations are better referred to as "Goliaths": large societies built on domination that contain the seeds of their own demise.
  • Inequality has been a key driver of societies becoming more vulnerable to collapse. 
  • Today, collapse is likely to be far worse: it will be global, long-lasting, and severe. 

Goliath’s Curse is not just a book about a few empires—it is a radical retelling of human history through collapse.
“Citing Hobbes’s Delusion, Goliath’s Curse, and cobalt miners in the Congo, renowned existential risk specialist Luke Kemp looks both back into history and forward into the future, spelling out the dangers that we currently face and suggesting ways in which we might avoid the pitfalls leading to collapse, before our luck runs out. This is a brilliant and insightful book, guaranteed to keep you thinking during the day and wide awake with worry during the night.” —Eric Cline, author of 1177 B.C. and After 1177 B.C.

"A deeply sobering and strangely inspiring history of how societies collapse—and how we can still save ours. Read it now, or your descendants will find it in the ruins." —Johann Hari, author of Stolen Focus

"Anyone who doubts the importance of this conversation hasn't been paying attention—the spectacle of the world's richest man seizing chaotic control of the world's most powerful nation underscores the author's points about the corrosive effects of grotesque inequity. It's clearly past time that we figured out how to build down the scale of our societies, in interesting but urgent ways." —Bill McKibben, author of Here Comes The Sun

“Absolutely essential reading for understanding why past civilizations collapsed,
and how to protect our own from the same fate.” —Lewis Dartnell, author of The Knowledge

"A comprehensive overview of societal collapse, based on the analysis of dozens of cases spanning thousands of years from the Paleolithic to today. Highly recommended." —Peter Turchin, author of End Times

“A profound and mind-expanding book that challenges the existing narratives of societal collapse. Through a long-term lens, Kemp asks us to reconsider histories we thought we knew, a present we take for granted, and future perils we have yet to meet. This is a chillingly enlightening read that will reorient your understanding of the world and how it came to be.” —Richard Fisher, author of The Long View and senior editor at Aeon

“This is the book on societal collapse that I had always hoped someone would write. It was worth the wait!” —Walter Scheidel, author of The Great Leveler

"A great book. The history and plausible futures of collapse are set forth with incredible clarity and rigour. The worst outcome is—we hope—probably preventable if we are perceptive enough as a species, and plan enough to persevere against the stupidity and arrogance of the plutocrats in our midst." —Danny Dorling, author of The Next Crisis

"Kemp shows that inequality breeds instability and true resilience lies in the democratisation of power. Important reading for anyone committed to a future beyond empire." —Jason Hickel, author of Less Is More

"In this wide-ranging book Luke Kemp presents a fascinating multi-millenial panorama of how societies have emerged, flourished, but eventually collapsed. He then addresses the lessons this historical record offers for safeguarding humanity’s future, in an era when unprecedented global connectedness and technological advance could engulf our entire civilisation in a terminal catastrophe." —Martin J. Rees, Astronomer Royal and author of Our Final Hour

"Erudite, detailed and urgent. A masterpiece of data-driven collapsology." —Paul Cooper, author of Fall of Civilizations

"A brilliant, utterly convincing account of the evolution of human society and why we are probably reaching humanity's end days." —Henry Marsh, author of Do No Harm

"A page-turning masterpiece and a necessary antidote to our age of crisis. If you like Jared Diamond you'll love Goliath's Curse. Compelling and profound." —Roman Krznaric, author of History for Tomorrow and The Good Ancestor

"Goliath’s Curse is both a sweeping history and a forensic diagnosis of the systems that rule us and how they fall apart. This isn’t just about the past; it’s about the trajectory we’re on now. This book offers the clarity we desperately need in an overloaded, accelerating world." —Nate Hagens, host of The Great Simplification
LUKE KEMP is a research affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge. He has lectured in the fields of economics and human geography, and has advised the World Health Organization, the Australian Parliament, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, and many other institutions. His research has been covered by media outlets such as The New York Times, the BBC, and The New Yorker. View titles by Luke Kemp

About

A vast and unprecedented survey of societal collapse—stretching from the Stone Age to the age of silicon—that digs through the ruins of fallen societies to understand the root causes of their downfall and the most dire consequences for our future.

"Deeply sobering and strangely inspiring . . . Read it now, or your descendants will find it in the ruins." —Johann Hari, author of Stolen Focus

"Highly recommended." —Peter Turchin, author of End Times


Stepping back to look at our precariously interdependent global society of today—with the threat of nuclear war ever present, the world getting hotter and hotter, and the rapid creation of dangerous algorithms—one couldn’t be blamed for asking: Will we make it?

Addressing this question with the seriousness it demands, Cambridge scholar Luke Kemp draws on multiple historical databases and the latest discoveries from archaeology and anthropology to reveal profound and often counterintuitive insights into why societies collapse, how those living through such collapses were impacted, and what it means for us today:

  • Collapse is often a good outcome for most people. After the fall of Rome people grew taller and healthier than they were under the empire. 
  • Our picture of past empires is skewed by the "1% view of history," relying on evidence only from the wealthiest class.
  • What we call civilizations are better referred to as "Goliaths": large societies built on domination that contain the seeds of their own demise.
  • Inequality has been a key driver of societies becoming more vulnerable to collapse. 
  • Today, collapse is likely to be far worse: it will be global, long-lasting, and severe. 

Goliath’s Curse is not just a book about a few empires—it is a radical retelling of human history through collapse.

Praise

“Citing Hobbes’s Delusion, Goliath’s Curse, and cobalt miners in the Congo, renowned existential risk specialist Luke Kemp looks both back into history and forward into the future, spelling out the dangers that we currently face and suggesting ways in which we might avoid the pitfalls leading to collapse, before our luck runs out. This is a brilliant and insightful book, guaranteed to keep you thinking during the day and wide awake with worry during the night.” —Eric Cline, author of 1177 B.C. and After 1177 B.C.

"A deeply sobering and strangely inspiring history of how societies collapse—and how we can still save ours. Read it now, or your descendants will find it in the ruins." —Johann Hari, author of Stolen Focus

"Anyone who doubts the importance of this conversation hasn't been paying attention—the spectacle of the world's richest man seizing chaotic control of the world's most powerful nation underscores the author's points about the corrosive effects of grotesque inequity. It's clearly past time that we figured out how to build down the scale of our societies, in interesting but urgent ways." —Bill McKibben, author of Here Comes The Sun

“Absolutely essential reading for understanding why past civilizations collapsed,
and how to protect our own from the same fate.” —Lewis Dartnell, author of The Knowledge

"A comprehensive overview of societal collapse, based on the analysis of dozens of cases spanning thousands of years from the Paleolithic to today. Highly recommended." —Peter Turchin, author of End Times

“A profound and mind-expanding book that challenges the existing narratives of societal collapse. Through a long-term lens, Kemp asks us to reconsider histories we thought we knew, a present we take for granted, and future perils we have yet to meet. This is a chillingly enlightening read that will reorient your understanding of the world and how it came to be.” —Richard Fisher, author of The Long View and senior editor at Aeon

“This is the book on societal collapse that I had always hoped someone would write. It was worth the wait!” —Walter Scheidel, author of The Great Leveler

"A great book. The history and plausible futures of collapse are set forth with incredible clarity and rigour. The worst outcome is—we hope—probably preventable if we are perceptive enough as a species, and plan enough to persevere against the stupidity and arrogance of the plutocrats in our midst." —Danny Dorling, author of The Next Crisis

"Kemp shows that inequality breeds instability and true resilience lies in the democratisation of power. Important reading for anyone committed to a future beyond empire." —Jason Hickel, author of Less Is More

"In this wide-ranging book Luke Kemp presents a fascinating multi-millenial panorama of how societies have emerged, flourished, but eventually collapsed. He then addresses the lessons this historical record offers for safeguarding humanity’s future, in an era when unprecedented global connectedness and technological advance could engulf our entire civilisation in a terminal catastrophe." —Martin J. Rees, Astronomer Royal and author of Our Final Hour

"Erudite, detailed and urgent. A masterpiece of data-driven collapsology." —Paul Cooper, author of Fall of Civilizations

"A brilliant, utterly convincing account of the evolution of human society and why we are probably reaching humanity's end days." —Henry Marsh, author of Do No Harm

"A page-turning masterpiece and a necessary antidote to our age of crisis. If you like Jared Diamond you'll love Goliath's Curse. Compelling and profound." —Roman Krznaric, author of History for Tomorrow and The Good Ancestor

"Goliath’s Curse is both a sweeping history and a forensic diagnosis of the systems that rule us and how they fall apart. This isn’t just about the past; it’s about the trajectory we’re on now. This book offers the clarity we desperately need in an overloaded, accelerating world." —Nate Hagens, host of The Great Simplification

Author

LUKE KEMP is a research affiliate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge. He has lectured in the fields of economics and human geography, and has advised the World Health Organization, the Australian Parliament, the UN Convention on Biological Diversity, and many other institutions. His research has been covered by media outlets such as The New York Times, the BBC, and The New Yorker. View titles by Luke Kemp